Under Penalty of Catapult

My latest for Saturday Down South examines how Southeastern Conference athletic departments monitor and regulate the use of social media services by their student-athletes.

The Southeastern Conference has won six consecutive BCS national championships. But will the conference continue to dominate off the field as well? I examine that question at Saturday Down South.

Alabama, Georgia and LSU remained the top three in this week’s SEC Index of Trivial Data while a surprising Kentucky team vaulted into 4th place.

The SECITD measures seven components and weighs each equally:

1. Cumulative offensive time of possession
2. Total punting yards
3. Total reported attendance
4. Total offensive rushing attempts
5. Fewest total penalty yards
6. Total number of defensive 3rd down stops
7. Fewest total 1st downs allowed

The 12 SEC schools are ranked in each category, with 12 points to the top school, 11 to the 2nd-best, etc. The category scores are then added to determine the overall ranking. A perfect score is 84 points. You can view the full rankings and statistical data at Index of Trivial Data.

#1 Alabama (67 points, finished #1 last week)

Alabama remained largely static this week, continuing its dominance in attendance and 3rd-down stops, while slipping to second place in fewest penalty yards.

#2 Georgia (65 points, #2)

Georgia retained the runner-up spot for the second consecutive week, finishing in the top-four in six of seven categories and leading rushing attempts outright (by three over LSU).

#3 LSU (64 points, #3)

Les Miles’ Tigers gained 10 ranking points over the previous week. LSU leads in time of possession by nearly two minutes and posted strong second-place showings in rushing attempts and fewest 3rd-down stops.

#4 Kentucky (51 points, #7)

Jumped three spots in the rankings largely on the strength of kicking — Kentucky now leads in total punting yards. The Wildcats also retained their lead over Alabama in fewest penalty yards.

#5 Mississippi State (47 points, #6)

Third-place finishes in punting yards and rushing attempts.

#6 Florida (46 points, T-#4)

Second place in rushing attempts, second-to-last in punting yards and fewest penalty yards.

#7 South Carolina (40 points, #8)

Strongest category was time of possession, where the Gamecocks placed fifth.

#8 Arkansas (37 points, T-#4)

Only finished in the top half of the conference in time of possession (6th place) and 3rd-down stops (tied for 4th place).

#9 (Tied) Tennessee & Auburn (35 points, #11/#10)

Tennessee is third in fewest penalty yards and fewest 1st downs allowed but dead last in punting yards. Auburn is last in fewest 1st downs allowed and next-to-last in two other categories.

#11 Vanderbilt (34 points, #9)

Had a bye this week and dropped accordingly

#12 Ole Miss (27 points, #12)

Another week in the basement for Houston Nutt’s crew. Only bright spot remains punting yards, where they dropped to second place this week.

Georgia continued its rise up the SEC Index of Trivial Data this week, seizing the #2 spot from LSU. Alabama remained #1 for the fourth consecutive week, but with a substantially diminished lead.

The SECITD measures seven components and weighs each equally:

1. Cumulative offensive time of possession
2. Total punting yards
3. Total reported attendance
4. Total offensive rushing attempts
5. Fewest total penalty yards
6. Total number of defensive 3rd down stops
7. Fewest total 1st downs allowed

The 12 SEC schools are ranked in each category, with 12 points to the top school, 11 to the 2nd-best, etc. The category scores are then added to determine the overall ranking. A perfect score is 84 points. You can view the full rankings and statistical data at SEC-ITD #3.

#1 Alabama (67 points; finished #1 last week)

Still the leader in attendance, 3rd down stops and fewest 1st downs allowed. Slipped to second in fewest penalty yards.

#2 Georgia (64 points; #3)

The Bulldogs continue to climb in the overall rankings, finishing no worse than fourth in any category except punting yards.

#3 LSU (54 points, #2)

The Tigers have a more than five minute lead in overall time of possession. Low punting yards remain a concern.

#4 (Tied) Florida & Arkansas (49 points, #6/#4)

The Gators are the most penalized team in terms of overall yards. But they are in the top-three of time of possession, attendance and rushing attempts. The Razorbacks are consistently at or near the median with a notable third-place standing in fewest penalty yards.

#6 Mississippi State (47 points, T-#8)

The leader in rushing attempts by a small margin (179 vs. 174 for #2 Florida).

#7 Kentucky (46 points, #7)

Dethroned Alabama as the leader in fewest penalty yards this week by a hair.

#8 South Carolina (43 points, T-#8)

Fifth-place finishes in time of possession, attendance and rushing attempts.

#9 Vanderbilt (41 points, #5)

Dropped four spots from last week. Fell to second in total punting yards. Bottom-three in attendance, rushing attempts and fewest penalty yards.

#10 Auburn (33 points, #12)

Climbed out of the cellar in the overall rankings. Dead last in time of possession and first downs allowed (where the Tigers may have an insurmountable lead). Attendance remains the bright spot (#2 overall).

#11 Tennessee (28 points, #10)

Had a bye week. Yet only managed to drop one spot in the overall rankings.

#12 Ole Miss (26 points, #11)

The top finished in punting yards. Bottom-three in every other category.

For the third consecutive week, Alabama and LSU finished 1-2 in my weekly SEC Index of Trivial Data. But other schools rose, including Georgia from 7th to 3rd and Arkansas from 9th to 4th.

The SECITD measures seven components and weighs each equally:

1. Cumulative offensive time of possession
2. Total punting yards
3. Total reported attendance
4. Total offensive rushing attempts
5. Fewest total penalty yards
6. Total number of defensive 3rd down stops
7. Fewest total 1st downs allowed

The 12 SEC schools are ranked in each category, with 12 points to the top school, 11 to the 2nd-best, etc. The category scores are then added to determine the overall ranking. A perfect score is 84 points. You can view the full rankings and statistical data at ITD-#3.

#1 Alabama (66 points; finished #1 last week)

Alabama lost a couple points this week yet still finished first in four of the seven categories: attendance, fewest penalty yards, 3rd-down stops, and fewest 1st downs allowed. The only weak spot is punting yards, where the Crimson Tide finished in the bottom half of the conference.

#2 LSU (59 points; #2)

LSU hasn’t closed the gap with Alabama yet remains solidly in second place, not just in the overall rankings, but in three categories: time of possession, rushing attempted and fewest 1st downs allowed.

#3 Georgia (55 points, T-#7)

The biggest jump in the rankings, the Bulldogs finished in the top half of the conference in every category, with particularly strong showings in rushing attempts and fewest penalty yards.

#4 Arkansas (50 points, T-#9)

The Razorbacks have the second-most 3rd down stops in the SEC and also fares strongly in time of possession.

#5 Vanderbilt (49 points, T-#9)

Another new entrant into the top half of the rankings, the Commodores lead the SEC in total punting yards and finished 3rd in both 3rd down stops and fewest 1st downs allowed.

#6 Florida (46 points, #3)

While in the top-3 in time of possession, attendance and rushing attempts, the Gators finished dead last in punting yards and fewest penalty yards.

#7 Kentucky (44 points, #5)

Strong in punting yards and fewest penalty yards, but weak everywhere else.

#8 (Tied) South Carolina & Mississippi State (41 points, T-#7/#6)

Mississippi State leads in rushing attempts. South Carolina is in the top-3 for fewest penalty yards.

#10 Tennessee (40 points, #4)

First in time of possession, second in attendance, in the bottom half in every other category.

#11 Ole Miss (29 points, #12)

Continues to dwell deep in the cellar with Auburn. But they are 3rd best in punting yards.

#12 Auburn (27 points, #11)

Last in three categories: time of possession, 3rd down stops and 1st downs allowed.

Economics is not a zero-sum game. Regulators commonly assume otherwise. They think Firm A can’t grow without “injuring” Firm B somehow. There’s no accounting for the creation of new wealth and resources.

In the artificial market of sports, however, there is a zero-sum game. There are 256 NFL regular season games. That means there are only 256 wins and 256 losses (excluding ties) to be allocated. Every team can’t finish 11-5.

In the sports market, you can do everything right in terms of hiring managers and talent and still not win many games for any of 100 reasons. And since the more successful sports leagues are closed systems, there’s generally no process for liquidating perpetually underperforming organizations. In most industries, the lesser firms can merge or reorganize; those options don’t exist in sports.

This is especially true in major college sports, where the teams are directly tied to universities. If School A has an underachieving football team, all it can do is fire the coach and hope the next guy does better. I’ve been reading Tweets today from Chadd Scott, a sportswriter and radio host, who has been banging the drum for Georgia to fire football coach Mark Richt. He thinks Georgia administrators and fans aren’t setting their expectations high enough and have settled for Richt.

Richt is hardly a loser. His record at Georgia is 96-36. Yet the last two-plus seasons have been mediocre, 14-14 since the start of the 2008 season. Scott says this is unacceptable and Georgia fans needs be more like their rivals in Alabama: “#Bama fans hold football program accountable to high standard of excellence YEARLY. No excuses, no exceptions. #UGA fans don’t.” As simple as that.

Or not. I get where Scott is coming from, but ultimately, there’s that pesky mathematical problem. Even if every team in the SEC aspires to be like Alabama and accepts “no excuses,” some teams will still underperform. If Georgia reaches Heaven, some other SEC school will march into Hell. It is literally impossible for every SEC team to succeed at the level Scott demands. And it’s really quite comical that he calls out Georgia fans for not setting more unrealistic expectations.

Now, that’s not a defense of Richt or Georgia’s recent performances. There may well be a better coach for Georgia who can elevate the program. Then again, there may not be. Alabama can set grand expectations with Nick Saban after plodding through the mediocrity that was former coach Mike Shula. But there aren’t 12 Nick Sabans to go around the SEC. In the end, you need talent to succeed, not screeching from sports-media Yahoos (not necessarily Yahoo Sports) about how you need to pound your fists and demand a “high standard of excellence.” That’s the kind of bullshit corporate managers come up with in “strategy” sessions. It doesn’t actually tell Georgia how to make its football program better. And it certainly doesn’t provide a realistic assessment of if that’s even possible given present constraints.

Georgia fans can rise up, oust Richt, and hire the flashiest and most expensive coach available. And the Bulldogs may still find themselves with the same record as Richt produced. That’s the problem with sports: Everything is designed to pull you towards mediocrity. Sports fandom isn’t about demanding excellence. It’s about coping with defeat in anticipation of receiving occasional rewards.

For the second consecutive week, Alabama and LSU finished 1-2 in my Index of Trivial Data, a measure of seven random statistics culled from SEC football box scores.

The SECITD measures seven components and weighs each equally:

1. Cumulative offensive time of possession
2. Total punting yards
3. Total reported attendance
4. Total offensive rushing attempts
5. Fewest total penalty yards
6. Total number of defensive 3rd down stops
7. Fewest total 1st downs allowed

The 12 SEC schools are ranked in each category, with 12 points to the top school, 11 to the 2nd-best, etc. The category scores are then added to determine the overall ranking. A perfect score is 84 points. You can view the full rankings and statistical data at SEC-ITD #2.

#1 Alabama (69 points; finished #1 last week)

Alabama finished first or tied for first in four of the seven categories again this week: attendance (the first SEC school over 200,000), fewest penalty yards, 3rd-down stops, and 1st downs allowed. The Crimson Tide also jumped three spots in time of possession.

#2 LSU (65 points; #2)

Les Miles’ crew claimed the top spot in rushing attempts and leaped to #2 in 3rd-down stops while falling dramatically in punting yards.

#3 Florida (53 points, T-#4)

Florida and Tennessee switched places this week. The Gators took the top spot in time of possession while remaining dead last in punting yards. They tied with Alabama for fewest 1st downs allowed.

#4 Tennessee (50 points, #3)

The best time of possession in the conference by almost eight minutes and the second-best attendance. But also in the bottom half of in 3rd-down stops and punting yards.

#5 Kentucky (49 points, #6)

Your #2 school in punting yards and fewest penalty yards. Low attendance (2nd worst in the conference) will hold them back.

#6 Mississippi State (48 points, T-#4)

First SEC school with over 100 rushing attempts.

#7 (Tied) Georgia & South Carolina (42 points, #10/T-#8)

Georgia dropped three spots in punting yards. South Carolina’s best category this week was rushing attempts (tied for 4th with Tennessee).

#9 (Tied) Arkansas & Vanderbilt (41 points, #7/T-#8)

The Commodores lead the conference in punting yards (539) but are dead last in rushing attempts and attendance. Arkansas’ best category is fewest 1st downs allowed (tied for 3rd with LSU).

#11 Auburn (27 points, #12)

There’s a huge drop-off from the two #9 schools to Auburn, 14 ranking points. Auburn climbed out of the cellar based largely on an upswing in punting yards.

#12 Ole Miss (23 points, #11)

A 10-point drop from week 1. Ole Miss is in the bottom three of time of possession, attendance, fewest penalty yards and 3rd-down stops.

Since I’m following the SEC this season as part of my work for Saturday Down South, I thought I would also join the fray of computer-statistics fanatics who devise the various rankings used to measure teams against one another. The Bowl Championship Series uses several such rankings as part of its methodology. But just try figuring out how those computer models work. I wanted something that was easier to understand — and which picked up on data ignored by the Big Boys. Thus I present my 2011 SEC Index of Trivial Data (SECITD).

The SECITD measures seven components and weighs each equally:

1. Cumulative offensive time of possession
2. Total punting yards
3. Total reported attendance
4. Total offensive rushing attempts
5. Total penalty yards (fewest)
6. Total number of defensive 3rd down stops
7. Total 1st downs allowed by defense (fewest)

The 12 SEC schools are ranked in each category, with 12 points to the top school, 11 to the 2nd-best, etc. The category scores are then added to determine the overall ranking. A perfect score is 84 points.

Here are the week one rankings:

#1 Alabama (66 total points):

Alabama finished first in four of the seven categories: Highest attendance, least penalty yards, most third-down stops and fewest 1st downs allowed. The only “weak” spot was a relatively low number of total punting yards.

#2 LSU (62.5)

LSU had the most rushing attempts and the second-highest time of possession and punting yards.

#3 Tennessee (58)

The Volunteers had the best time of possession and the second-best attendance and number of rushing attempts. It was near the bottom of third-down stops, however.

#4 (Tied) Florida & Mississippi State (47.5)

Dan Mullen’s team excelled in penalty yards and third-down stops; Will Muschamp’s first game rated high on attendance and fewest first downs allowed.

#6 Kentucky (46)

Best punting team in the SEC after one week! But also the worst attendance.

#7 Arkansas (42)

Most penalty yards in the opening weekend. Made up for it top-three finishes in time of possession and first downs allowed.

#8 (Tied) Vanderbilt & South Carolina (41)

The Commodores were last in rushing attempts. The Gamecocks were third in the same category.

#10 Georgia (38)

Third-best punting team; second-worst in first downs allowed.

#11 Ole Miss (33)

In the bottom half of the SEC in every category except punting yards and fewest penalty yards.

#12 Auburn (23.5)

The defending BCS champions were last by a wide margin after finishing at the bottom in time of possession and first downs allowed.

I recently had an article at Saturday Down South speculating on what the Southeastern Conference might look like in 10 years. This was prompted by an email from the editor at SDS, Kevin Duffey, who thought it would be interesting to explain how one day Texas A&M (currently in the Big 12) and Clemson (currently in the ACC) might end up facing off for the SEC championship.

The narrative I constructed assumed that by 2021, the six major football conferences would essentially merge into four 16-team “mega” conferences. Turns out I wasn’t the only person thinking about this. Kristi Dosh, an attorney and sports business writer in Atlanta, outlined her own mega-conference scenario today. Her predictions diverge substantially from mine, which is fine, because I was largely playing out one particular scenario without regard for its likelihood of occurring.

My scenario was based on two major assumptions: (1) Texas A&M gets sick of playing second-fiddle to Texas in the Big 12 and jumps to the SEC; and (2) the SEC raids the ACC to consolidate its existing geographic footprint. In other words, the SEC adds members from states that already have SEC programs: Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Florida State. That gets you to 16 quite easily.

Like me, Dosh also assumed Texas A&M goes to the SEC. But while I went with the raid-the-ACC scenario, Dosh assumed the ACC would stay intact (and expand into a mega-conference itself) and that the Big 12 would dissolve, leaving Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Missouri to join the SEC. I admit her scenario seems more plausible based on present conditions. I assumed that Texas would keep the Big 12 together rather than go independent, as Dosh predicts. Certainly the emergence of Texas’ Longhorn Network and the internal friction that has already caused within the Big 12 suggests the school may soon go independent.

I would add that in developing my own scenario, I assumed that the mega-conferences would break off from the NCAA and form an independent college football association. This is important because under such a scenario, there would be no independent schools. Dosh wasn’t operating under that assumption, so schools like Notre Dame and BYU can remain as independents. In my loosely sketched-out alignment, Notre Dame joined the Big 10 and BYU joined the Pac-12 (which I concede would never happen while football remains within the NCAA).

The other big piece of Dosh’s scenario is that the Big 10 raids the Big East and takes Syracuse, UCONN, and Rutgers, along with Kansas from the defunct Big 12. I also thought Rutgers might join the Big 10. However, I thought Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, and Virginia Tech would be the other additions. I could see her case for UCONN and Syracuse as cultural fits within the Big 10. I never considered Syracuse in my scenario because I believe, if there is a college football secession, it will be very hard for private (non-state-run) universities to remain competitive, except for schools with strong independent support bases like Notre Dame and BYU.

Now my biggest divergence with Dosh comes over the question of which conference to kill, the ACC or the Big 12. I agree with Dosh that the Big 12 is presently the more vulnerable conference. It has been reduced to 10 members with the Colorado and Nebraska defections, killing the conference’s championship game (NCAA rules require 12 members for that) and there’s no immediate prospects for expansion. Despite this, I still think the ACC may be the first conference to go. The ACC’s problem is that it’s stuck in a weird limbo between its basketball heritage and its football prospects. The conference’s last expansion — adding Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College — diluted its basketball power while doing little for its football competitiveness on the national stage. Miami is long past its prime, and Virginia Tech is the only real football jewel in the bunch. The Hokies could probably fit into an expanded Big 10 or SEC without much difficulty.

The question is, does the ACC want to expand? The political power within the conference remains with the North Carolina schools, which are basketball-first. Even Dosh only proposed adding two teams, Pitt and West Virginia. But I question where West Virginia will be in a few years given the recent turmoil around the program. It may not be that attractive a partner. (And as I noted earlier, I see Pitt going to the Big 10.) Overall, I think the ACC will find itself on the defensive, struggling to retain its peripheral members in the South from a possible SEC assault.

That leaves the Pac-12 and Big 12. Dosh has been on the warpath this week, insisting Boise State will never be invited into the Pac-12 or any other major conference. I casually assumed Boise State would end up in an expanded Pac-16. Dosh argued, “They don’t offer a large media market or fertile recruiting ground.” I can’t disagree. A lot of Boise State’s current success is smoke and mirrors, a factor of dominating a weak conference with no extra (championship) game and benefitting from exposure on ESPN. If you put Boise State in a major conference, there’s a good chance it quickly falls to the back of the pack.

Dosh projects a Pac-14 that adds Texas Christian and Texas Tech. I agree that TCU won’t last long in its new Big East alliance. Once again, the big question is whether Texas dissolves the Big 12 by going independent. If it doesn’t, then my scenario remains in play, where Texas basically ropes in enough schools to create a mega-conference it can dominate. I admit it’s not the sexiest hypothetical. You’d probably have to rope in marginal football powers like Memphis to get to 16.

I also think Texas politics may play a large role in this. When Texas A&M allegedly flirted with jumping to the SEC last year, I saw many reports that insisted the powers-that-be in the state were reluctant to break up the four texas schools — Texas, A&M, Texas Tech, and Baylor — in the Big 12. Dosh’s scenario omits Baylor altogether, which may not sit well with the politicians. Political considerations alone might force some type of Texas-based conference to stay together.

Over at Saturday Down South, I explore the possible causes for SEC expansion, and at the National Antitrust Hall of Fame I critique the FTC and DOJ’s new alliance with the Chinese government.