Under Penalty of Catapult

Greg Schiano is reportedly leaving Rutgers and the Big East Conference to take over as head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Media and public reaction seems mixed. Schiano supporters cite his ability to turn a cellar-dwelling program into a mediocre program. Schiano is also highly thought of by Bill Belichick, according to Belichick’s media handlers. Given how well Belichick’s own former assistants have fared as head coaches, I’m not sure what that means for Schiano’s chances in Tampa.

In reality, the majority of NFL head coaching hires end in failure. Few coaches retire after winning a Super Bowl. Dick Vermeil did, then promptly changed his mind and had a muddling three-year run in Kansas City. Tom Coughlin was proclaimed dead man coaching a month ago, now he’s on the cusp of a second Super Bowl (which ought to propel his future Hall of Fame candidacy, but that’s another post).

I haven’t got a clue how Schiano will do in Tampa, and neither does anyone else. Schiano is no riskier a hire than an anonymous assistant like Joe Philbin or Dennis Allen, both of whom are newly hired head coaches. And from Schiano’s standpoint, the move makes perfect sense. Even if he gets fired after two or three bad seasons, plenty of colleges will line up to offer him a job. Just ask Bobby Petrino, Steve Spurrier and Nick Saban.

The real story here, I think, is that Schiano is abandoning the Rutgers ship as it’s in the process of sinking. Nowhere is the Sports Bubble more visible than Rutgers, as one local newspaper noted just a few weeks ago:

Despite winning on the field this year, Rutgers football and its broader athletic program are among the biggest money losers in the nation, a Star-Ledger analysis shows, and the situation may be getting worse. The shortfall last year forced the university to divert millions of dollars from student fees, tuition and state tax dollars to cover the $64.2 million it spent to run its 24-sport athletic program, records reveal.

Schiano is credited with building Rutgers into a marginal Big East power. But the truth is, Rutgers shouldn’t even be playing football at the top level. It’s a FCS school struggling to fit into FBS-sized pants. The fact that Rutgers spent this much money and still couldn’t win a single Big East title under Schiano should tell you all you need to know. That’s a black mark on the university, not Schiano.

Joe Schad of ESPN said Schiano was “also concerned about perceived uncertainty of the future direction the Big East.” It’s a perfectly valid concern. As I said in my Joe Paterno obituary for Saturday Down South, “University leaders no longer view coaches as the most important decision with respect to football, but conference affiliation.” Rutgers hasn’t even been a factor in conference realignment, and now it’s stuck in an unstable Big East that’s gambling everything on a national expansion including the likes of Boise State. Without a strong conference, Rutgers is doomed to irrelevancy regardless of Schiano’s recruiting abilities or in-game management.